The Potential for Superhot Rock Energy in the United States

Superhot rock energy’s enormous potential in the United States

First-of-a-kind modeling from Clean Air Task Force and the University of Twente in the Netherlands estimated superhot rock energy potential around the world. This modeling represents preliminary estimates of superhot rock potential, rather than confirmed resources. Nevertheless, it suggests that the United States is well endowed with superhot rock resources, as illustrated in our global map.ⁱ

CATF’s model finds superhot rock energy potential across about 20% of the United States’s land area — amounting to more than 750 thousand square miles — at depths below approximately 8 miles (12.5 km). With a concerted focus on deep drilling research and technology innovation, the United States should be able to access significant amounts of superhot rock energy.

Just 1% of the United States’s superhot rock resource has the potential to provide 4.3 terawatts of energy capacity (see Figure 2), which could generate nearly 36,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Though these numbers are only preliminary, their scale is enormous. To provide perspective, New York City consumed 53 TWh of electricity in 2019, so the United States’s superhot rock energy resource capacity could theoretically satisfy the annual electricity demands of nearly 680 additional cities equivalent to New York City.

Environmental and health benefits

The U.S.’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement aims to reduce emissions by over 3450 megatonnes of CO2eq annually by 2030, and the country has a separate goal of 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. Using just 1% of the United States’s superhot rock energy endowment to replace coal and gas for in electricity generation would eliminate over 1600 megatonnes of carbon emissions – equivalent to nearly half of the U.S.’s NDC goal. While it is improbable that superhot rock energy will reach commercial scale in time to support the U.S.’s 2030 clean energy goals, this finding illustrates its potential to enable the country’s low-carbon energy strategy over time. Superhot rock energy would also provide air quality and health benefits by reducing nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and other toxic pollutants associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. And excess superhot rock energy could help the U.S. produce zero-carbon fuels for decarbonizing industrial and transportation sectors.

Leveraging subsurface expertise

The United States is renowned for its subsurface expertise and infrastructure. The country’s oil and gas sector is well poised to develop superhot rock on both domestic and foreign soil. U.S. oil and gas companies maintain deep expertise in many of the technical areas needed to deploy superhot rock energy quickly and a fleet of international assets, such as drilling rigs and contractual partners, that could do so at a global scale. Many of the electricians, mechanics, geoscientists, and more currently working in the U.S.’s oil and gas sector could find similar employment in the superhot rock industry, enabling a zero-carbon employment pathway. Meanwhile, an intensive drilling and resource development program by well-funded consortia that include oil and gas industry players around the country could provide the knowledge and innovation needed to develop and rapidly commercialize superhot rock energy.

Enabling a reliable and efficient grid

Superhot rock energy is available around the clock, rain or shine. An electricity system without this type of firm power requires building excess generation and transmission capacity to ensure there is always enough to meet demand. For example, a recent study of California found that an energy system that includes clean firm power would require one-third the new transmission compared to one without these resources. Finally, the 24/7 production profile of superhot rock energy makes better use of existing grid infrastructure by operating reliably and consistently, reducing reliance on demand-side shifting and expensive backup generation.

Efficient land use

Superhot rock energy is expected to be an extremely energy-dense resource, so its land requirements will be exceptionally low. Producing 1 GW of superhot rock energy is estimated to require roughly 7 sq mi of land, compared to approximately 100 sq mi of land for natural gas, 110 sq mi for solar, 325 sq mi for offshore wind, and 8,700 sq mi for biomass.ⁱⁱ

What will this cost?

According to preliminary modeling, electricity produced from mature superhot rock energy resources could be competitive with conventional power sources priced potentially as low as $25-40 (USD) per MWh on a global average.^v Initial costs will be higher for first-of-a-kind projects but are likely to progressively decline in the same way that unconventional shale gas, solar, and wind project costs have declined after commercialization.

Figure 3: Illustrative graph shows how electricity produced from superhot rock is expected to be competitive for Nth-of-a-kind plants (NOAK) based on estimated levelized cost of electricity after full commercialization

With the right funding and policy support, superhot rock energy could develop to its full potential: creating abundant renewable energy around the world. 

To learn more about the policy and technology innovations required to fulfill superhot rock energy’s revolutionary potential, visit our website. See more findings from CATF’s heat mapping research here. For inquiries, contact [email protected].