UK’s climate future: Progress needed across sectors as 2030 targets loom
Last month, the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) published its annual progress report to Parliament. This is a legal requirement of the UK’s Climate Change Act and sets out how the UK is progressing against its climate targets.
Progress on climate action
The new report finds that the UK has made good progress, meeting all its emissions reductions targets so far, including the most recent Third Carbon Budget (2018-2022). However, these emissions reductions have mostly come from the energy supply sector, primarily through the phase out of coal and increases in renewable electricity generation. For 2030, the CCC finds that the UK only has credible plans in place to meet a third of the emissions reductions required to meet its target of a 68% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels.
The new Government has already taken positive steps to accelerate climate action. It has removed the ban on onshore wind and announced its intention to reform planning, approved three new solar farms, introduced the Great British Energy Bill, and created a number of new governance structures and roles to ensure cross-Government coordination and implementation. However, policy delivery at this stage in the transition is increasingly complex, and the new Government will need to make difficult decisions on the future allocation of limited public funds.
The CCC states that more than three quarters of the emissions reductions for the next three carbon budgets will need to come from sectors other than energy, with action on transport, buildings, agriculture and land particularly necessary. Their recommendations primarily focus on increasing the installation of renewables, particularly for wind and solar, increased electrification to decarbonise heat, transport and industry, and energy efficiency in buildings.
A full suite of climate solutions is needed to reach climate goals
But the UK will need to pursue a full suite of low- and zero-carbon technologies, tailored to specific sectors, that have the potential to support energy security, drive economic growth, and implement the UK’s climate goals.
Action on methane is one of the fastest, most cost-effective, and impactful actions the UK can take to meet its climate targets. The CCC states that for the UK to achieve a 30% reduction in its own methane emissions by 2030, in line with the collective commitment of the Global Methane Pledge, the pace of recent reductions will need to approximately double. CATF has outlined a series of recommendations to tackle methane emissions in the UK. These include developing a comprehensive Methane Action Plan, which outlines policies across the energy, agriculture and waste sectors. Reducing methane emissions from the agriculture sector presents a particular challenge, and the CCC recommends accelerating the scale up of methane-suppressing feed products. However, the Government should also consider other levers such as policies that lead to improved animal health and reduced mortality (that can lead to overall reductions in herd size), improving the performance of grazing systems, accelerating the development and introduction of cattle breeding programmes to reduce production of methane, and improving manure management practices that decrease production of methane or capture methane emitted.
The CCC also identifies the need for deployment of at least 5 MtCO2 of engineered greenhouse gas removals per year by 2030. The UK has a robust set of policies in place for deploying carbon capture and storage, which will be essential to deliver this near-term removals target, while also helping to decarbonise industry and power. First projects in each of these sectors must progress as soon as possible. The UK should also strengthen the Emissions Trading System to ensure it acts as a sufficient incentive for industrial decarbonisation, and is able to facilitate the transport and storage of CO2 from EU Member States to the North Sea.
Furthermore, the Committee recommends the Government simplify the strategic decision on the role of hydrogen for heat and clarify its position on the economy-wide priority of use-cases for hydrogen. Hydrogen must be prioritised to sectors with limited energy-efficient or cost-effective decarbonisation alternatives and where carbon-intensive hydrogen is used today. No-regrets applications for low-carbon hydrogen include crude oil refining, ammonia production, methanol production and steel manufacturing. Government should rule out the use of low carbon hydrogen for blending into the gas grid and for home heating.
On aviation, the CCC states that the market for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will need to grow rapidly from 1.2% to commercialisation and scale-up to meet the Government’s target for 10% of all UK aviation fuel to be SAF by 2030. The Government has announced its intention to introduce a bill to support SAF production and introduce a SAF mandate starting from 1 January 2025. However, overreliance on SAF for decarbonisation is unlikely to succeed over the longer term given feedstock constraints and sustainability concerns related to the indirect effect of biofuels production on agriculture and land use. Government should therefore also consider other low- or zero-carbon aviation technologies including synthetic or e-fuels, that, like SAF, could be used as drop-in substitutes for fossil kerosene; direct use of hydrogen and ammonia as aircraft fuels; and fully electric aircraft.
Finally, although the CCC’s Progress Report is primarily focused on meeting the UK’s 2030 target, nuclear will remain an important part of the UK’s energy mix and the Government will need to ensure progress on new nuclear energy now to meet its net zero target. To allow for new nuclear energy to be delivered at significantly lower cost and shorter timeframes, the industry must shift away from one-off projects towards standardised products and thoughtfully planned projects. The UK is also successfully supporting the development of fusion energy, but can go further by collaborating with international partners to enable the creation of a global fusion industry.
Deployment is key
The new Government has already indicated its commitment to tackling climate change. The CCC plays an important role in holding the Government to account, and will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget (2038-2042), and an updated path to Net Zero early in 2025. But statements of intention and recommendations for action must be transformed into real implementation and deployment of key technologies. If the UK is to meet its ambitious targets and reinstate its domestic and international leadership on climate, this deployment must progress at pace.
