Case Study
The Potential for Superhot Rock Energy in Europe
What if there were a ubiquitous, always-on renewable energy source with the potential to replace fossil fuel power generation and meet much of the world’s future energy needs? What if that energy source could provide firm power without variability issues? What if it had a low land footprint and was available around the world, reducing the need to import energy?
This energy source is possible. It’s called superhot rock energy.
The power of superhot rock geothermal energy
Superhot rock energy is an emerging energy source that will harness massive stores of renewable energy by pumping water deep into hot underground rocks, where it naturally heats up and then returns to the surface as steam. That steam could be used to produce carbon-free electricity, clean hydrogen, and other high-energy-intensity products.
Traditional geothermal systems in operation today only work in regions where hot water naturally exists near the earth’s surface. By contrast, superhot rock energy systems would reach deeper into the earth and wouldn’t require underground sources of water, making them viable across the globe. With appropriate investment to overcome technological hurdles, superhot rock energy could reach commercial scale. If this is achieved, superhot rock energy could provide clean firm power at scale without the import risk and land-use footprint of other energy sources.
Figure 1: Animation of a superhot rock energy system
Superhot rock energy’s enormous potential in Europe
First-of-a-kind modeling from Clean Air Task Force and the University of Twente estimated superhot rock energy potential around the world. This modeling represents preliminary estimates of superhot rock potential, rather than confirmed resources. Nevertheless, it suggests that Europe is well endowed with superhot rock resources, as illustrated in our global map.i
CATF’s model finds superhot rock energy potential across about 9% of Europe’s land area — amounting to nearly 900 thousand square kilometers — at depths below 12.5 km. With a concerted focus on deep drilling research and technology innovation, Europe should be able to access superhot rock across the continent.
Just 1% of Europe’s superhot rock resource has the potential to provide 2.1 terawatts of energy capacity, which could generate nearly 18,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity. Though these numbers are only preliminary, their scale is enormous. To provide perspective, the city of Berlin consumed 12.5 TWh in 2022, so Europe’s superhot rock energy resource capacity could theoretically satisfy the annual electricity demands of over 1,400 additional cities equivalent to Berlin.
Energy demand in Europe
Europe’s electricity demand is projected to rise over the coming decades. European countries will also need to adopt more energy-intensive technologies to adapt to rising temperatures and extended droughts – Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world – while shifting their energy sectors away from fossil fuels.
If fully deployed and utilized, Europe’s superhot rock resource potential could help meet the region’s energy demand, and might even produce additional electricity that could be exported in the form of high-electricity consuming products or zero-carbon fuels.
Figure 2: The total capacity potential of superhot rock energy if fully developed across countries with available heat in Europe
Environmental and health benefits
The combined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement for all European countries that have significant superhot rock energy resourcesii aim to reduce emissions by almost 700 megatonnes of CO2eq annually by 2030. Additionally, numerous countries in the region have adopted zero-carbon or climate neutrality goals.iii Europe’s superhot rock energy endowment could replace fossil-based energy sources and their associated carbon emissions. While it is improbable that superhot rock energy will reach commercial scale in time to support 2030 climate goals, it does have the potential to enable low-carbon energy development over time. Superhot rock energy would also provide air quality and health benefits by reducing nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, and other toxic pollutants associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. And excess superhot rock energy could help Europe produce zero-carbon fuels for decarbonizing industrial and transportation sectors.
Leveraging subsurface knowledge
Europe is renowned for its subsurface expertise and is well-poised to champion superhot rock European laboratories are leading research in many of the technical areas needed to develop superhot rock energy. And many of the electricians, mechanics, geoscientists, and more currently working in Europe’s oil and gas sector could find similar employment in the superhot rock industry, enabling a zero-carbon employment pathway. Meanwhile, an intensive drilling and resource development program by well-funded consortia from around the continent could provide the knowledge and innovation needed to develop and rapidly commercialize superhot rock energy.
Enabling a reliable and efficient grid
Superhot rock energy is available around the clock, rain or shine. An electricity system without this type of firm power requires building excess generation and transmission capacity to ensure there is always enough to meet demand. For example, a recent study of California found that an energy system that includes clean firm power would require one-third the new transmission compared to one without these resources. Finally, the 24/7 production profile of superhot rock energy makes better use of existing grid infrastructure by operating reliably and consistently, reducing reliance on demand-side shifting and expensive backup generation.
Efficient land use
Superhot rock energy is expected to be an extremely energy-dense resource, so its land requirements will be exceptionally low. Producing 1 GW of superhot rock energy is estimated to require roughly 12 km2 of land, compared to approximately 160 km2 of land for natural gas, 180 km2 for solar, 520 km2 for offshore wind, and 14,000 km2 for biomass.iv
What will this cost?
According to preliminary modeling, electricity produced from mature superhot rock energy resources could be competitive with conventional power sources priced potentially as low as $25-40 (USD) per MWh on a global average.v Initial costs will be higher for first-of-a-kind projects but are likely to progressively decline in the same way that unconventional shale gas, solar, and wind project costs have declined after commercialization.
Figure 3: Illustrative graph shows how electricity produced from superhot rock is expected to be competitive for Nth-of-a-kind plants (NOAK) based on estimated levelized cost of electricity after full commercialization
With the right funding and policy support, superhot rock energy could develop to its full potential: creating abundant renewable energy around the world.
To learn more about the policy and technology innovations required to fulfill superhot rock energy’s revolutionary potential, visit our website. See more findings from CATF’s heat mapping research here. For inquiries, contact [email protected].
Endnotes
i. Methodology forthcoming
ii. Austria, the Azores, Bulgaria, Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, Greenland, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Serbia, Spain, Svalbard, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom
iii. Iceland, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the European Union
iv. Land use estimates for superhot rock energy from LucidCatalyst and Hotrock Research Organization. (2023). A Preliminary Techno-Economic Model of Superhot Rock Energy. https://www.catf.us/resource/preliminary-techno-economic-model-superhot-rock-energy/. Land use estimates for all other energy sources from Lovering, Jessica, Swain, Marian, Blomqvist, Linus, & Hernandez, Rebecca R. (2022). “Land-use intensity of electricity production and tomorrow’s energy landscape.” PLoS ONE 17(7): e0270155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270155
v. The cost scenarios were developed using CATF’s SHR technoeconomic model (Herter, 2023). It is important to understand that water risk or restriction has not been considered. Furthermore, the LCOE report assumes engineering innovations in deep drilling, reservoir creation, well construction and downhole tools needed to allow the commercial development of a superhot rock geothermal project. These cost estimates do not represent the likely costs for first-of-a-kind superhot rock plants. Rather, the report estimates costs for Nth-of-a-kind plants. Furthermore, the report is considering operation conductions and knowledge present in the United States. The numbers have not been adjusted for regional cost biases.
Future state of superhot rock:
Key steps to success
Private and public investment
Investment from both private and public sources is needed to help superhot rock energy reach its full potential. It will require resources of governments, geothermal industry, academic institutions, oil and gas industry, and technology companies.
Government investment
Early government investments can jumpstart the process of commercialization by providing drilling campaign incentives, funding early-stage R&D to “de-risk” superhot rock in the public and private sector, funding pilot projects, and enhancing cooperation among international projects.
Regulatory
regime
New policies are needed to ensure that superhot rock energy development is both safe and efficient. Institutional frameworks are also required to provide the resources needed for development and scalability at a global level.
Curious to learn more?
Take a deeper dive into superhot rock
Learn more about how the superhot rock process works and explore the potential benefits this source of energy has to offer.
