Taking stock of methane action: Where things stand before COP29 in Baku
As the world prepares for COP29 in Baku, the urgency to address methane pollution is clearer than ever. The UN’s emissions gap report shows that we are not on track to meet our climate goals, and methane is the only action we can take that can both slow the ever-increasing rate of warming and help us start to bend the curve on climate. This is because methane is what we call a short-lived greenhouse gas meaning it has a short life in the atmosphere as compared to carbon dioxide (CO2). During that short life, however, it’s incredibly potent at warming the planet, with over 80 times the punch of CO2. Methane is also the second largest contributor to climate change — responsible for about half a degree of current warming. Deep reductions in methane emissions offer the best strategy to slow climate change within our lifetimes. Additional action on methane at COP29 will be critical to keeping global climate goals within reach and avoiding near-term climate impacts.
Methane emissions primarily come from three sectors: about 36% from fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal), 40% from agriculture, and 19% from waste, such as landfills and sewage. The good news is that we have readily available solutions to reduce methane emissions from all three major emitting sectors. In fact, using currently available technologies, we could cut methane emissions by at least 45% by 2030, enough to avoid 0.3°C of warming by the 2040s.
At COP 26 in Glasgow, methane catapulted to the forefront of climate discussions with the launch of the Global Methane Pledge with over 150 nations committed to collectively reduce methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. Since the launch we have seen unprecedented progress and support for driving action on methane globally. Millions of dollars in public grant resources have become available, including $200+ million in announcements from governments. Hundreds of millions in new philanthropic support for Pledge implementation, including more than $350 million through the Global Methane Hub and $200 million in funding for the Enteric Methane Accelerator. Transformational data tools have been developed, including the Methane Alert and Response System and a new Data for Methane Action Campaign. Regulatory action on fossil fuel methane has been enacted, and governments have begun taking action to remake waste systems and promising research has ramped up to reduce methane from agriculture.
However, these actions are not nearly enough — we need governments, companies, financial institutions and civil society to double down on methane to ensure we see the progress necessary. In the wake of the U.S. elections, the world will need strong leadership from countries around the globe to fill any gaps that emerge from changes in U.S. climate policy. Countries can only talk about doing something for so long before it comes time to roll up your sleeves and start doing it. With COP29 on the horizon, it’s time for world leaders to get to doing — and to accelerating impact to bend the curve on climate.
Here’s where things stand right now.
The era of radical transparency has arrived
Earlier this year, two intrepid projects from CATF partners, years in the making, came to fruition with the successful launch of publicly-funded satellites. EDF’s MethaneSat (launched in March 2024) and Carbon Mapper’s Tanager-1 (August 2024) took to the skies and starting this month will begin releasing streams of high-quality, publicly available methane data from leaky facilities across the globe. They will join the efforts of the International Methane Emissions Observatory to target large, super-emitting sites and increase our understanding of the scope of the problem.
Methane emissions are far too high
Despite substantial pledges at previous COPs, recent analyses reveal methane emissions continue to climb, particularly across U.S. oil and gas production, underscoring the urgency for robust mitigation strategies.
At COP29, nations will need to bring concrete actions to the table that build on the groundwork laid in previous years.
Methane regulatory action is on the move as more countries adopt or plan for common sense regulations on the oil and gas industry
Although atmospheric methane concentrations remain high, regulatory efforts to reduce emissions in the energy sector are steadily strengthening and expanding. In 2023, the EU set a global standard by implementing methane regulations with an import requirement, compelling companies to lower emissions to retain unfettered access to the European market — illustrating how economic incentives can drive cross-border compliance. The regulation entered into force this year. Already, trade partners around the world are responding, preparing for a new era of enhanced transparency and tightened rules in the global oil and gas trade.
In the U.S., Environmental Protection Agency regulations on new and existing sources, along with a “methane fee,” are now in effect, boosting emissions transparency and providing financial incentives to curb wasteful flaring. Meanwhile, Canada’s new federal regulations set an ambitious goal of a 75% reduction in oil and gas methane emissions by 2030.These frameworks set a strong foundation for additional efforts expected at COP29, where several countries, including key producing countries in Central Asia, South America and the Middle East, are expected to announce plans for methane mitigation measures.
We are also starting to see some promising first steps taken by a country that a little over a year ago did not look like it could be a potential climate leader. Turkmenistan will likely announce its Methane Roadmap, a plan for “radical modernization” of its oil and gas industry, and it has joined the MARS program, the International Methane Emissions Observatory program to detect and abate large scale emissions events. We may even see further ambition from this country whose emissions intensity is far too high.
To further support these efforts, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) and Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recently launched the Fossil Fuel Regulatory Program to support low- and middle-income governments in taking immediate action to reduce methane emissions from their oil, gas, and coal sectors. Ghana, Iraq, and Kazakhstan have been the first countries to sign up for the program, with several more expected to join in the next few months.
Waste to take center stage under the COP29 Presidency
In the waste sector, methane largely originates from decomposing organic materials in landfills. At the national level, the past year has seen positive signals from both Canada, which introduced new proposed regulations for its waste sector, and the U.S., where the EPA committed to updating Clean Air Act standards for how U.S. landfills monitor, capture, and control methane. And ahead of COP29, the COP presidency announced the Methane Reduction from Organic Waste Declaration, which will advocate for waste diversion strategies to cut these emissions at the source. These combined efforts underscore waste management and agriculture as critical areas for achieving meaningful methane reductions worldwide.
Efforts to mitigate agriculture methane emissions get a boost in the NDCs
At COP28, the International Fund for Agriculture Development announced that it would help governments incorporate agricultural methane into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and build investment pipelines to support that work. In advance of COP29, the COP presidency announced the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, a Food and Agriculture Organization-led program to help rural communities adopt low-emission practices through shared knowledge, financing, and local engagement. Additionally, the new Climate Finance Action Fund aims to provide climate finance for the food and agriculture sector, especially in low- to middle-income countries where agriculture is a “major livelihood and vulnerability factor.” As countries revise their NDCs, COP29 will emphasize incorporating agricultural methane targets to align emissions reduction with food security and resilience.
Looking ahead to COP29
Progress on methane reduction has been tangible but remains uneven. As nations gather in Baku for COP29, the emphasis must shift from pledges to action to implementation, ensuring that regulations are enforced, financing mechanisms are accessible, and technological innovations are deployed effectively.
